CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-12-28T23:00ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43631/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 202512-28T23:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which began at 2025-12-28T17:53Z. The source of this event is an M4.2 flare from N08W28 which peaked at 2025-12-28T22:39Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. A wide region of dimming stretching towards the South and West can be seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211, along with field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Possible/likely arrival signature: Potential weak glancing blow CME signature at 2025-12-31T13:20Z characterized by an increase in B_total from ~4nT to ~11nT, separation of magnetic field components, an increase in solar wind speeds from ~400 km/s to ~540 km/s, temporary increases in solar wind temperature and density, followed by drop in density. This feature may be embedded within the start of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-31T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-01T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Unknown Radial velocity (km/s): 551 Longitude (deg): 41 Latitude (deg): 7 Half-angular width (deg): 36 Notes: Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 Dec 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity ...A CME associated with the M4.2 flare from Region 4317 was analyzed and indicated a possible indirect impact, arriving late on 31 Dec into early on 01 Jan. Solar Wind Forecast... Near background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 29-30 Dec. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by 31 Dec due to influence from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, possibly combined with glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 29 Dec. Geospace Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels, with possible isolated unsettled periods, on 29-30 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with likely active periods late on 31 Dec due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS combined with possible glancing CME effects from the CME that left the Sun on 29 Dec. :Product: Geomagnetic Forecast :Issued: 2025 Dec 29 2205 UTC NOAA Kp index forecast 01 Jan 00-03UT: 5.00Lead Time: 57.52 hour(s)
Difference: -13.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-12-29T03:49Z
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